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[title] => ‘Ovo bi moglo biti najopasnije vrijeme u zadnjih nekoliko desetljeća‘: stručnjaci predviđaju novi ekonomski krah
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I bogate i siromašne nacije tek su počele hvatati dah nakon trogodišnjega lančanoga niza strukturnih ekonomskih šokova: najprije pandemije COVID-a 19, pa potom i ruske invazije na Ukrajinu. Inflacija je taman počela padati, cijene energenata su se stabilizirale, obnovila su se turistička kretanja i predviđene recesije su nekako jedva izbjegnute. No, palestinski Hamas je mimo svih, pa i najopreznijih izraelskih predviđanja, baš tada odlučio baciti novi klip u već prilično načete tračnice svjetskih gospodarskih kretanja.
---
---
Rat koji se razbuktava na Bliskom istoku opet je navukao crne oblake na obzore globalne ekonomije prijeteći iznova usporavanjem rasta i novim rastom cijena hrane i energije. Vodeće međunarodne financijske institucije, kao i privatni investitori i revizorske kuće, otvoreno alarmiraju svjetsku javnost da bi se ionako krhki oporavak mogao ubrzo srušiti. Širenje izraelskih vojnih operacija u Gazi moglo bi eskalirati u veliki regionalni sukob koji će proizvesti posljedice neviđene desetljećima, upozoravaju neki od najrelevantnijih makroekonomskih eksperata.
---
---
"Ovo je prvi put da imamo čak dva energetska šoka u isto vrijeme", upozorio je nedavno Indermit Gill, glavni ekonomist Svjetske banke, govoreći o utjecaju ratova u Ukrajini i na Bliskom istoku na cijene nafte i plina. Po njemu, svijet se nalazi u jednom od povijesno najosjetljivijih ekonomskih trenutaka. Stalni cjenovni šokovi ne umanjuju samo kupovnu moć, nego i permanentno povećavaju troškove proizvodnje hrane, povećavajući rizik od gladi, naročito u zemljama u razvoju.
Mnoge takve države se već bore s neobično visokim razinama duga, slabim privatnim investicijama i najsporijim oporavkom trgovine u zadnjih pet desetljeća. Više kamatne stope koje su rezultat pokušaja središnjih banaka da ukrote inflaciju otežale su i vladama i privatnim tvrtkama donedavni pristup kreditima. Rat na Bliskom istoku mogao bi lako postati kap koja će mnogima preliti već prepunu čašu.
---
---
Katastrofične procjene Svjetske banke prate strahovi mnogih relevantnih analitičara. Jamie Dimon, izvršni direktor JP Morgana, izjavio je da bi "ovo moglo biti najopasnije vrijeme koje je svijet vidio u zadnjih nekoliko desetljeća". Sukob u Gazi ovaj dužnosnik najveće američke banke vidi kao "trenutno najvažniji događaj za cijeli zapadni svijet".
Svi veliki ekonomski problemi današnjice, nije tajna, potaknuti su produbljivanjem dugih geopolitičkih sukoba. Napetosti između SAD-a i Kine oko prijenosa tehnologije i sigurnosti već godinama kompliciraju zajednički rad na realnim problemima kao što su klimatske promjene, otpis duga siromašnima ili nasilni regionalni sukobi. Političke preokupacije anuliraju kao efikasne i mnoge tradicionalne monetarne i fiskalne alate, poput prilagodbe kamatnih stopa ili državne potrošnje.
---
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Brutalne borbe između Izraela i Hamasa već su odnijele živote tisuća civila i nanijele na obje strane veliku štetu i ekonomsku bijedu. Ako sukob ostane obuzdan, njegov utjecaj na svjetsko gospodarstvo vjerojatno će ostati ograničen. Bliskoistočni proizvođači nafte ne dominiraju više svjetskim tržištem kao 1970-ih: trenutačno su Sjedinjene Države najveći svjetski proizvođač, a alternativni i obnovljivi izvori energije također čine utjecajan dio svjetske energetske mašine. No, eskalacija bliskoistočnog rata scenarij je oko kojega se svi, pa i oni najmoćniji, moraju duboko zabrinuti. Protegnu li se ratne implikacije sve do Perzijskoga zaljeva, dugotrajan pad globalne ponude nafte mogao bi potaknuti novi val inflacije i posvuda usporiti ekonomski rast.
---
---
Gregory Daco, glavni ekonomist u EY-Parthenonu, rekao je za New York Times da bi najgora posljedica širenja bliskoistočnog rata mogla biti skori skok cijena nafte na 150 dolara po barelu. Trenutno barel sirove nafte košta gotovo upola manje, oko 85 dolara. Globalne posljedice toga scenarija bile bi, po mišljenju Gregoryja Dacoa, iznimno teške: recesija, nagli pad cijena dionica i gubitak od oko barem dva trilijuna dolara za ukupnu svjetsku ekonomiju.
---
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No, kao što kaže ona reklama, to nije sve. Novi sukobi na Bliskom istoku, kao i gospodarski problemi koji bi iz svega proizišli, garantirano bi višestruko povećali i postojeću masu migranata koji se iz cijele sjeverne Afrike već uporno nastoje domoći Europe. Nova gladna usta teško će itko zaustaviti na putu do žuđenog zaklona i jedinoga dostupnoga kruha. Europska unija na rubu recesije teško se nosi i s postojećim obujmom migracija, pa je nedavno pokrenula pregovore s Egiptom o povećanju financijske pomoći ovoj zemlji u zamjenu za kontrolu migrantskih kretanja. No, jasno je da u slučaju veće ratne eskalacije masovne egzoduse nitko neće biti u stanju valjano kontrolirati.
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I bogate i siromašne nacije tek su počele hvatati dah nakon trogodišnjega lančanoga niza strukturnih ekonomskih šokova: najprije pandemije COVID-a 19, pa potom i ruske invazije na Ukrajinu. Inflacija je taman počela padati, cijene energenata su se stabilizirale, obnovila su se turistička kretanja i predviđene recesije su nekako jedva izbjegnute. No, palestinski Hamas je mimo svih, pa i najopreznijih izraelskih predviđanja, baš tada odlučio baciti novi klip u već prilično načete tračnice svjetskih gospodarskih kretanja.
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---
Rat koji se razbuktava na Bliskom istoku opet je navukao crne oblake na obzore globalne ekonomije prijeteći iznova usporavanjem rasta i novim rastom cijena hrane i energije. Vodeće međunarodne financijske institucije, kao i privatni investitori i revizorske kuće, otvoreno alarmiraju svjetsku javnost da bi se ionako krhki oporavak mogao ubrzo srušiti. Širenje izraelskih vojnih operacija u Gazi moglo bi eskalirati u veliki regionalni sukob koji će proizvesti posljedice neviđene desetljećima, upozoravaju neki od najrelevantnijih makroekonomskih eksperata.
---
---
"Ovo je prvi put da imamo čak dva energetska šoka u isto vrijeme", upozorio je nedavno Indermit Gill, glavni ekonomist Svjetske banke, govoreći o utjecaju ratova u Ukrajini i na Bliskom istoku na cijene nafte i plina. Po njemu, svijet se nalazi u jednom od povijesno najosjetljivijih ekonomskih trenutaka. Stalni cjenovni šokovi ne umanjuju samo kupovnu moć, nego i permanentno povećavaju troškove proizvodnje hrane, povećavajući rizik od gladi, naročito u zemljama u razvoju.
Mnoge takve države se već bore s neobično visokim razinama duga, slabim privatnim investicijama i najsporijim oporavkom trgovine u zadnjih pet desetljeća. Više kamatne stope koje su rezultat pokušaja središnjih banaka da ukrote inflaciju otežale su i vladama i privatnim tvrtkama donedavni pristup kreditima. Rat na Bliskom istoku mogao bi lako postati kap koja će mnogima preliti već prepunu čašu.
---
---
Katastrofične procjene Svjetske banke prate strahovi mnogih relevantnih analitičara. Jamie Dimon, izvršni direktor JP Morgana, izjavio je da bi "ovo moglo biti najopasnije vrijeme koje je svijet vidio u zadnjih nekoliko desetljeća". Sukob u Gazi ovaj dužnosnik najveće američke banke vidi kao "trenutno najvažniji događaj za cijeli zapadni svijet".
Svi veliki ekonomski problemi današnjice, nije tajna, potaknuti su produbljivanjem dugih geopolitičkih sukoba. Napetosti između SAD-a i Kine oko prijenosa tehnologije i sigurnosti već godinama kompliciraju zajednički rad na realnim problemima kao što su klimatske promjene, otpis duga siromašnima ili nasilni regionalni sukobi. Političke preokupacije anuliraju kao efikasne i mnoge tradicionalne monetarne i fiskalne alate, poput prilagodbe kamatnih stopa ili državne potrošnje.
---
---
Brutalne borbe između Izraela i Hamasa već su odnijele živote tisuća civila i nanijele na obje strane veliku štetu i ekonomsku bijedu. Ako sukob ostane obuzdan, njegov utjecaj na svjetsko gospodarstvo vjerojatno će ostati ograničen. Bliskoistočni proizvođači nafte ne dominiraju više svjetskim tržištem kao 1970-ih: trenutačno su Sjedinjene Države najveći svjetski proizvođač, a alternativni i obnovljivi izvori energije također čine utjecajan dio svjetske energetske mašine. No, eskalacija bliskoistočnog rata scenarij je oko kojega se svi, pa i oni najmoćniji, moraju duboko zabrinuti. Protegnu li se ratne implikacije sve do Perzijskoga zaljeva, dugotrajan pad globalne ponude nafte mogao bi potaknuti novi val inflacije i posvuda usporiti ekonomski rast.
---
---
Gregory Daco, glavni ekonomist u EY-Parthenonu, rekao je za New York Times da bi najgora posljedica širenja bliskoistočnog rata mogla biti skori skok cijena nafte na 150 dolara po barelu. Trenutno barel sirove nafte košta gotovo upola manje, oko 85 dolara. Globalne posljedice toga scenarija bile bi, po mišljenju Gregoryja Dacoa, iznimno teške: recesija, nagli pad cijena dionica i gubitak od oko barem dva trilijuna dolara za ukupnu svjetsku ekonomiju.
---
---
No, kao što kaže ona reklama, to nije sve. Novi sukobi na Bliskom istoku, kao i gospodarski problemi koji bi iz svega proizišli, garantirano bi višestruko povećali i postojeću masu migranata koji se iz cijele sjeverne Afrike već uporno nastoje domoći Europe. Nova gladna usta teško će itko zaustaviti na putu do žuđenog zaklona i jedinoga dostupnoga kruha. Europska unija na rubu recesije teško se nosi i s postojećim obujmom migracija, pa je nedavno pokrenula pregovore s Egiptom o povećanju financijske pomoći ovoj zemlji u zamjenu za kontrolu migrantskih kretanja. No, jasno je da u slučaju veće ratne eskalacije masovne egzoduse nitko neće biti u stanju valjano kontrolirati.
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[twitterURL] => http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=%E2%80%98Ovo+bi+moglo+biti+najopasnije+vrijeme+u+zadnjih+nekoliko+desetlje%C4%87a%E2%80%98%3A+stru%C4%8Dnjaci+predvi%C4%91aju+novi+ekonomski+krah&url=https%3A%2F%2Fslobodnadalmacija.hr%2Fvijesti%2Fsvijet%2Fovo-bi-moglo-biti-najopasnije-vrijeme-u-zadnjih-nekoliko-desetljeca-strucnjaci-predvidaju-novi-ekonomski-krah-1335739
[socialLink] => https%3A%2F%2Fslobodnadalmacija.hr%2Fvijesti%2Fsvijet%2Fovo-bi-moglo-biti-najopasnije-vrijeme-u-zadnjih-nekoliko-desetljeca-strucnjaci-predvidaju-novi-ekonomski-krah-1335739
)
Array
(
[1] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 2
[name] => Superscript Title
[value] => gladne godine
[type] => textarea
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 2
[alias] => SuperscriptTitle
)
[3] => stdClass Object
(
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[name] => Contains Infographic
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 4
[alias] => contains_infographic
)
[4] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 62
[name] => Without ads
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 5
[alias] => Withoutads
)
[5] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 63
[name] => Photo gallery
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 6
[alias] => Photo_gallery
)
[6] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 64
[name] => Promo
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 7
[alias] => promo
)
[8] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 67
[name] => Contains video
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 9
[alias] => contains_video
)
[9] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 68
[name] => Premium content
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 10
[alias] => premium_content
)
[10] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 69
[name] => Exclude comments
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 11
[alias] => exclude_comments
)
[11] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 70
[name] => Open link in new window
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 12
[alias] => open_link_in_new_window
)
[12] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 71
[name] => Horizontal crop of the main photo
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 13
[alias] => horizontal_crop_of_the_main_photo
)
[13] => stdClass Object
(
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[name] => No-index
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 15
[alias] => no_index
)
[14] => stdClass Object
(
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[name] => No-cache
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 16
[alias] => no_cache
)
[15] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 77
[name] => Don't show on the front page
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 17
[alias] => dont_show_on_the_front_page
)
[16] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 78
[name] => Related on bottom
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 18
[alias] => related_on_bottom
)
[17] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 79
[name] => Live button
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 19
[alias] => live_button
)
[26] => stdClass Object
(
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[name] => Instant articles
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 28
[alias] => instant_articles
)
[27] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 91
[name] => S preporučuje
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 29
[alias] => s_preporucuje
)
[28] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 92
[name] => S voli
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 30
[alias] => s_voli
)
[29] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 93
[name] => Layout with three photos
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 31
[alias] => layout_with_three_photos
)
[30] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 94
[name] => Gallery in the article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 32
[alias] => gallery_in_the_article
)
[31] => stdClass Object
(
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[name] => Required views
[value] => 0
[type] => textfield
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 33
[alias] => required_views
)
[32] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 96
[name] => FullHD image
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 34
[alias] => fullhd_image
)
[33] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 97
[name] => City Select
[value] => (0)
[type] => select
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 35
[alias] => CitySelect
)
[34] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 98
[name] => Paid Article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 36
[alias] => paid_article
)
[35] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 99
[name] => SD na licu mjesta
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 37
[alias] => SD_na_licu_mjesta
)
)
13. svibanj 2024 14:15
