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[title] => Može li Trump blokirati Bidenovu pobjedu? Evo što kažu stručnjaci i kada će rezultati glasanja biti konačni
[alias] => moze-li-trump-blokirati-bidenovu-pobjedu-evo-sto-kazu-strucnjaci-i-kada-ce-rezultati-glasanja-biti-konacni
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Otkako su američki mediji u subotu proglasili da je Joe Biden pobijedio na izborima, predsjednik Donald Trump odbija priznati poraz i neumorno iznosi neutemeljene navode da je prevaren.
Trumpov tim podnio je tužbe u pet saveznih država zbog navodne izborne prijevare, ali pravni stručnjaci smatraju da je mogućnost da će sudovi okrenuti rezultat u Trumpovu korist gotovo nepostojeća.
Malo je i vjerojatno da će ručno prebrojavanje svih glasova u Georgiji poništiti Bidenovo vodstvo ondje.
Slijedi pregled stanja devet dana nakon izbora.
Kad će rezultati biti konačni?
Iako su američki mediji zaključili da će Biden biti pobjednik u ključnim državama, poput Pennsylvanije, glasovi se još uvijek broje.
Georgija je već objavila da će svi birački listići u državi biti ponovo ručno prebrojani. Takva situacija moguća je i u Wisconsinu.
Međutim, svaka država ima svoj rok za verifikaciju izbornih rezultata: Georgia do 20. studenoga, Pennsylvania do 23. studenoga, a Arizona do 30. studenoga.
"Mislim da nećemo morati čekati do formalne verifikacije", kaže John Fortier, stručnjak za izbore u Centru za dvostranačku politiku, organizaciji koja nastoji premostiti republikansko-demokratske podjele.
"Razlike iako djeluju male, zapravo su prevelike da bi ih mogle promijeniti neke pravne tužbe", rekao je.
Biden, na primjer, u Pennsylvaniji ima prednost od 60.000 glasova.
Stvarni krajnji rok je 14. prosinca kad se sastaje izborni kolegij i formalno bira predsjednika na temelju glasova koje je osvojio u svakoj od država.
Rok se poštivao čak i 2000. kad su George W. Bush pobijedio demokrata Ala Gorea nakon pet tjedana prebojavanja i pravnih bitki na Floridi.
Suparnički elektori?
Trumpovi napadi na integritet izbornog procesa izazvali su zabrinutost da izborni kolegij neće poštivati rezultate narodnog glasanja.
U saveznim državama u kojima su ured guvernera i parlament u rukama suparničkih stranaka, na primjer, moglo bi se dogoditi da svaka strana verificira svoje elektore.
Takva je situacija u Pennsylvaniji, Michiganu i Wisconsinu, ključnim državama u kojima je pobjeda tijesno pripisana Bidenu. Sve imaju demokratske guvernere, ali parlament s republikanskom većinom.
"Takav scenarij je iznimno nevjerojatan, ali zabrinjavajuće je da se o njemu uopće raspravlja", kaže Barry Burden, profesor političkih znanosti na Sveučilištu Wisconsin.
U slučaju da se to ipak dogodi, a za Bideov poraz nije dovoljna jedna nego je potrebno da nekoliko država delegira suparničke elektore, spor bi se preselio pred Kongres koji se sastaje 6. siječnja kako bi formalno potvrdio novog predsjednika.
Međutim, stručnjaci tvrde da je takav scenarij izvan realne mogućnosti.
Hoće li Trump priznati poraz?
"Vjerojatno neće nikad", misli Burden. Ali njegovo priznanje ionako nije uvjet za Bidenovu pobjedu.
On će ionako biti ustoličen za predsjednika 20. siječnja, ali izostanak Trumpova priznanja mogao bi zasjeniti Bidenovu pobjedu.
"Mislim da u Trumpovoj kampanji na to i računaju", kazao je Burden.
Fortier je uvjeren da osim dojma neće biti drugih problema.
"Apsolutno vjerujem u miran prijenos vlasti. A novi predsjednik će krenuti s poslom neovisno o tome bila tranzicija prijateljska ili ne".
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Otkako su američki mediji u subotu proglasili da je Joe Biden pobijedio na izborima, predsjednik Donald Trump odbija priznati poraz i neumorno iznosi neutemeljene navode da je prevaren.
Trumpov tim podnio je tužbe u pet saveznih država zbog navodne izborne prijevare, ali pravni stručnjaci smatraju da je mogućnost da će sudovi okrenuti rezultat u Trumpovu korist gotovo nepostojeća.
Malo je i vjerojatno da će ručno prebrojavanje svih glasova u Georgiji poništiti Bidenovo vodstvo ondje.
Slijedi pregled stanja devet dana nakon izbora.
Kad će rezultati biti konačni?
Iako su američki mediji zaključili da će Biden biti pobjednik u ključnim državama, poput Pennsylvanije, glasovi se još uvijek broje.
Georgija je već objavila da će svi birački listići u državi biti ponovo ručno prebrojani. Takva situacija moguća je i u Wisconsinu.
Međutim, svaka država ima svoj rok za verifikaciju izbornih rezultata: Georgia do 20. studenoga, Pennsylvania do 23. studenoga, a Arizona do 30. studenoga.
"Mislim da nećemo morati čekati do formalne verifikacije", kaže John Fortier, stručnjak za izbore u Centru za dvostranačku politiku, organizaciji koja nastoji premostiti republikansko-demokratske podjele.
"Razlike iako djeluju male, zapravo su prevelike da bi ih mogle promijeniti neke pravne tužbe", rekao je.
Biden, na primjer, u Pennsylvaniji ima prednost od 60.000 glasova.
Stvarni krajnji rok je 14. prosinca kad se sastaje izborni kolegij i formalno bira predsjednika na temelju glasova koje je osvojio u svakoj od država.
Rok se poštivao čak i 2000. kad su George W. Bush pobijedio demokrata Ala Gorea nakon pet tjedana prebojavanja i pravnih bitki na Floridi.
Suparnički elektori?
Trumpovi napadi na integritet izbornog procesa izazvali su zabrinutost da izborni kolegij neće poštivati rezultate narodnog glasanja.
U saveznim državama u kojima su ured guvernera i parlament u rukama suparničkih stranaka, na primjer, moglo bi se dogoditi da svaka strana verificira svoje elektore.
Takva je situacija u Pennsylvaniji, Michiganu i Wisconsinu, ključnim državama u kojima je pobjeda tijesno pripisana Bidenu. Sve imaju demokratske guvernere, ali parlament s republikanskom većinom.
"Takav scenarij je iznimno nevjerojatan, ali zabrinjavajuće je da se o njemu uopće raspravlja", kaže Barry Burden, profesor političkih znanosti na Sveučilištu Wisconsin.
U slučaju da se to ipak dogodi, a za Bideov poraz nije dovoljna jedna nego je potrebno da nekoliko država delegira suparničke elektore, spor bi se preselio pred Kongres koji se sastaje 6. siječnja kako bi formalno potvrdio novog predsjednika.
Međutim, stručnjaci tvrde da je takav scenarij izvan realne mogućnosti.
Hoće li Trump priznati poraz?
"Vjerojatno neće nikad", misli Burden. Ali njegovo priznanje ionako nije uvjet za Bidenovu pobjedu.
On će ionako biti ustoličen za predsjednika 20. siječnja, ali izostanak Trumpova priznanja mogao bi zasjeniti Bidenovu pobjedu.
"Mislim da u Trumpovoj kampanji na to i računaju", kazao je Burden.
Fortier je uvjeren da osim dojma neće biti drugih problema.
"Apsolutno vjerujem u miran prijenos vlasti. A novi predsjednik će krenuti s poslom neovisno o tome bila tranzicija prijateljska ili ne".
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11. svibanj 2024 13:24
