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Gospodarski rast Kine ove će godine premašiti službene projekcije Pekinga – to je sukus velike analize koju je američka agencija za kreditni rejting S&P Global Ratings objavila ovog tjedna.

„Kinesko gospodarstvo je na putu oporavka”, navodi se u studiji pod naslovom „Ekonomski izgledi za Aziju i Pacifik u drugom kvartalu 2023.: Oporavak Kine podupire rast”, u kojoj se ističe da je ekonomski rast Kine „predvođen potrošnjom i uslugama”:

„Naša prognoza rasta BDP-a od 5,5 posto ove godine premašuje cilj od 5 posto, najavljen na sastancima Nacionalnog narodnog kongresa (NPC) u ožujku. Po našem mišljenju, Peking je taj cilj postavio relativno neambiciozno kako bi osigurao prostor politici za odgovor na inflaciju ili financijske rizike, ako bude potrebno”, stoji u analizi.

U studiji se navodi da je nakon iznenadnog ukidanja ograničenja Covid-19 Kina izašla iz pandemije „s brzim rastom mobilnosti i povećanjem samopouzdanjem”, što je dovelo do pozitivnih ekonomskih rezultata.

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Zhou Mu/Xinhua Via Afp
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„Bolji zamah industrijske proizvodnje, investicija i posebno maloprodaje u prva dva mjeseca potvrdio je oporavak. Uvjeti u stambenom sektoru su se poboljšali. Prodaja stanova se povećala, a cijene kuća su početkom 2023. prestale padati”, ustvrdila je američka agencija.

Usporavanje u ostatku Azije

S druge strane, u studiji se upozorava da će ostatak Azije i Pacifika ekonomski usporiti.

„Kao što smo i očekivali, većina je gospodarstava usporila u četvrtom kvartalu, posebno ona koja su najizloženija usporavanju globalne trgovine. Južna Koreja i Tajvan zabilježili su negativan uzastopni rast BDP-a, a Singapur je na nuli. (...) Rast je uočen u gospodarstvima Filipina i Indonezije koja su bila više vođena domaćom potražnjom”, pišu američki analitičari.

Kao faktor koji bi mogao pomoći u ekonomskom usponu regije, u studiji se ističe upravo Kina:

„Oporavak Kine neće potpuno neutralizirati utjecaj usporavanja u SAD-u i Europi na azijsko-pacifičku regiju. Ali će ga ublažiti. Vjerojatno ubrzanje u Kini ove godine općenito je usporedivo s vjerojatnim usporavanjem u SAD-u i Europi”, navodi se u analizi.

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Chen Jianli/Xinhua Via Afp
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Američka agencija pritom notira da ekonomski utjecaj Kine varira od zemlje do zemlje u regiji: dok za Hong Kong, Tajvan i (posebno) Australiju važnost Kine kao krajnjeg tržišta premašuje važnost SAD-a i Europe zajedno, za Južnu Koreju i Novi Zeland Kina je jednako važna kao zajedničko tržište SAD-a i Europe, dok je u većini ostalih gospodarstava regije kineski udio manji.

Inflacija muči Australiju

U analizi se također ističe da su u mnogim zemljama regije Azija-Pacifik narasla inflacija i povećane kamatne stope počele opterećivati kupovnu moć kućanstava, što osobito vrijedi za gospodarstva s najvećim porastom kamata: Australiju, Hong Kong, Novi Zeland i Filipine.

„Važan dio tog pritiska odvija se preko tržišta nekretnina, dok stope hipoteka rastu, a cijene kuća padaju. Stambeni i ostali dugovi kućanstava posebno su visoki u Australiji, Novom Zelandu i Južnoj Koreji. Sve u svemu, više kamatne stope imaju najveći učinak na Australiju i Novi Zeland”, stoji u izvještaju.

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image
Li Ziheng/Xinhua Via Afp
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Prema S&P-u, azijsko-pacifičke ekonomije, ne računajući Kinu, trebale bi ove godine usporiti zbog slabijeg globalnog rasta i previranjima na bankarskim tržištima:

„Očekujemo da će regija, isključujući Kinu, ove godine imati rast od 3,8 posto, nakon što je lani imala rast od 4,7 posto. Usporenje će biti izraženije u gospodarstvima koja su izložena usporavanju globalne trgovine i promjenama kamatnih stopa”, navode S&P-ovi stručnjaci.

Porast u Kini, pad u SAD-u

Dio analize posvećen je zapadnim ekonomijama, a tu su prognoze američke agencije znatno sumornije:

„SAD i eurozona vjerojatno će ove godine značajno usporiti. Očekujemo samo 0,7 posto rasta u SAD-u i 0,3 posto u eurozoni. (...) Nedavne turbulencije u bankarskom sektoru vjerojatno će utjecati na povjerenje i otežati pristup financiranju”, ističe S&P.

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Richard Jones/science Photo Libr/Science Photo Library Via Afp
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U studiji se dalje navodi da će se inflacija u SAD-u „vjerojatno smanjivati samo postupno”, kao i da će Federalne rezerve SAD-a (FED) morati dodatno podići kamatne stope.

„Tržište rada u SAD-u je snažno; nezaposlenost je i dalje niska, a plaće brzo rastu. Kao rezultat toga, temeljna inflacija ponovno je porasla početkom 2023. na mjesečnoj osnovi. Stoga je malo vjerojatan brzi pad ukupne inflacije”, predviđaju američki analitičari, uz relativno optimističan generalni zaključak:

„Opća slika je regionalna ekonomija u točki ravnoteže. Porast u Kini, ali istodobno usporavanje u SAD-u i eurozoni.”

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više nego što je Komunistička partija predvidjela. 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Gospodarski rast Kine ove će godine premašiti službene projekcije Pekinga – to je sukus velike analize koju je američka agencija za kreditni rejting S&P Global Ratings objavila ovog tjedna.

„Kinesko gospodarstvo je na putu oporavka”, navodi se u studiji pod naslovom „Ekonomski izgledi za Aziju i Pacifik u drugom kvartalu 2023.: Oporavak Kine podupire rast”, u kojoj se ističe da je ekonomski rast Kine „predvođen potrošnjom i uslugama”:

„Naša prognoza rasta BDP-a od 5,5 posto ove godine premašuje cilj od 5 posto, najavljen na sastancima Nacionalnog narodnog kongresa (NPC) u ožujku. Po našem mišljenju, Peking je taj cilj postavio relativno neambiciozno kako bi osigurao prostor politici za odgovor na inflaciju ili financijske rizike, ako bude potrebno”, stoji u analizi.

U studiji se navodi da je nakon iznenadnog ukidanja ograničenja Covid-19 Kina izašla iz pandemije „s brzim rastom mobilnosti i povećanjem samopouzdanjem”, što je dovelo do pozitivnih ekonomskih rezultata.

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image
Zhou Mu/Xinhua Via Afp
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„Bolji zamah industrijske proizvodnje, investicija i posebno maloprodaje u prva dva mjeseca potvrdio je oporavak. Uvjeti u stambenom sektoru su se poboljšali. Prodaja stanova se povećala, a cijene kuća su početkom 2023. prestale padati”, ustvrdila je američka agencija.

Usporavanje u ostatku Azije

S druge strane, u studiji se upozorava da će ostatak Azije i Pacifika ekonomski usporiti.

„Kao što smo i očekivali, većina je gospodarstava usporila u četvrtom kvartalu, posebno ona koja su najizloženija usporavanju globalne trgovine. Južna Koreja i Tajvan zabilježili su negativan uzastopni rast BDP-a, a Singapur je na nuli. (...) Rast je uočen u gospodarstvima Filipina i Indonezije koja su bila više vođena domaćom potražnjom”, pišu američki analitičari.

Kao faktor koji bi mogao pomoći u ekonomskom usponu regije, u studiji se ističe upravo Kina:

„Oporavak Kine neće potpuno neutralizirati utjecaj usporavanja u SAD-u i Europi na azijsko-pacifičku regiju. Ali će ga ublažiti. Vjerojatno ubrzanje u Kini ove godine općenito je usporedivo s vjerojatnim usporavanjem u SAD-u i Europi”, navodi se u analizi.

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image
Chen Jianli/Xinhua Via Afp
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Američka agencija pritom notira da ekonomski utjecaj Kine varira od zemlje do zemlje u regiji: dok za Hong Kong, Tajvan i (posebno) Australiju važnost Kine kao krajnjeg tržišta premašuje važnost SAD-a i Europe zajedno, za Južnu Koreju i Novi Zeland Kina je jednako važna kao zajedničko tržište SAD-a i Europe, dok je u većini ostalih gospodarstava regije kineski udio manji.

Inflacija muči Australiju

U analizi se također ističe da su u mnogim zemljama regije Azija-Pacifik narasla inflacija i povećane kamatne stope počele opterećivati kupovnu moć kućanstava, što osobito vrijedi za gospodarstva s najvećim porastom kamata: Australiju, Hong Kong, Novi Zeland i Filipine.

„Važan dio tog pritiska odvija se preko tržišta nekretnina, dok stope hipoteka rastu, a cijene kuća padaju. Stambeni i ostali dugovi kućanstava posebno su visoki u Australiji, Novom Zelandu i Južnoj Koreji. Sve u svemu, više kamatne stope imaju najveći učinak na Australiju i Novi Zeland”, stoji u izvještaju.

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image
Li Ziheng/Xinhua Via Afp
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Prema S&P-u, azijsko-pacifičke ekonomije, ne računajući Kinu, trebale bi ove godine usporiti zbog slabijeg globalnog rasta i previranjima na bankarskim tržištima:

„Očekujemo da će regija, isključujući Kinu, ove godine imati rast od 3,8 posto, nakon što je lani imala rast od 4,7 posto. Usporenje će biti izraženije u gospodarstvima koja su izložena usporavanju globalne trgovine i promjenama kamatnih stopa”, navode S&P-ovi stručnjaci.

Porast u Kini, pad u SAD-u

Dio analize posvećen je zapadnim ekonomijama, a tu su prognoze američke agencije znatno sumornije:

„SAD i eurozona vjerojatno će ove godine značajno usporiti. Očekujemo samo 0,7 posto rasta u SAD-u i 0,3 posto u eurozoni. (...) Nedavne turbulencije u bankarskom sektoru vjerojatno će utjecati na povjerenje i otežati pristup financiranju”, ističe S&P.

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image
Richard Jones/science Photo Libr/Science Photo Library Via Afp
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U studiji se dalje navodi da će se inflacija u SAD-u „vjerojatno smanjivati samo postupno”, kao i da će Federalne rezerve SAD-a (FED) morati dodatno podići kamatne stope.

„Tržište rada u SAD-u je snažno; nezaposlenost je i dalje niska, a plaće brzo rastu. Kao rezultat toga, temeljna inflacija ponovno je porasla početkom 2023. na mjesečnoj osnovi. Stoga je malo vjerojatan brzi pad ukupne inflacije”, predviđaju američki analitičari, uz relativno optimističan generalni zaključak:

„Opća slika je regionalna ekonomija u točki ravnoteže. Porast u Kini, ali istodobno usporavanje u SAD-u i eurozoni.”

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Američka agencija: Kineski BDP će ove godine rasti više nego što je Komunistička partija predvidjela. SAD u padu

Piše damir pilić
2. travnja 2023. - 21:31
24636149
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Yan Yan/Xinhua Via Afp

Gospodarski rast Kine ove će godine premašiti službene projekcije Pekinga – to je sukus velike analize koju je američka agencija za kreditni rejting S&P Global Ratings objavila ovog tjedna.

„Kinesko gospodarstvo je na putu oporavka”, navodi se u studiji pod naslovom „Ekonomski izgledi za Aziju i Pacifik u drugom kvartalu 2023.: Oporavak Kine podupire rast”, u kojoj se ističe da je ekonomski rast Kine „predvođen potrošnjom i uslugama”:

„Naša prognoza rasta BDP-a od 5,5 posto ove godine premašuje cilj od 5 posto, najavljen na sastancima Nacionalnog narodnog kongresa (NPC) u ožujku. Po našem mišljenju, Peking je taj cilj postavio relativno neambiciozno kako bi osigurao prostor politici za odgovor na inflaciju ili financijske rizike, ako bude potrebno”, stoji u...

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11. svibanj 2024 11:44