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Vedran Šošić, glavni ekonomist HNB-a, gostovao je u N1 Studiju uživo gdje je komentirao inflaciju i što građani mogu očekivati od cijena i kamatnih stopa.

Na pitanje kad bi se cijene mogle vratiti u normalu, Vedran Šošić odgovara:

- Trenutno se očekuje da bi inflacija mogla dosegnuti vrhunac u drugom tromjesečju, nakon vrhunca cijena struje u plina, a krajem godine bi se trebala ispuhivati. Cijene sirovina i energenata dale su poticaj rastu inflacije. Muči nas cijena nafte, to je teško predviđati, skočile su na između 90 i 100 dolara. Očekuje se blago spuštanje prema kraju godine, ali sve je to velika neizvjesnost.

Cijene energije su se brzo prenijele na crpke, još doduše imamo ograničenje cijena benzina, kod plina ćemo vidjeti u travnju što će se dogoditi – imamo paket koji bi trebao ublažiti prelijevanje. Hrana trenutno daje najveći doprinos inflaciji, cijene rastu prema zadnjim podacima oko 8 posto, čak i više.

Proizvođačke cijene prehrane su rasle oko 4 posto, manje nego u maloprodaji. Trgovci kažu da nastoje očeuvati i preuzeti na marže dio rasta troškova, no po statistici čini se da marže nisu smanjivali. Puno onoga što se događalo prošle godine već je apsorbirano u cijenama, ne bi se trebalo dalje vidjeti u narednim mjesecima, zaključio je za N1.

Kaže da je moguće da se iskorištava rast cijena sirovina za poskupljenje krajnjeg proizvoda: “Moguće da i toga ima. To je i najveća opasnost. Inflacija je i psihološki fenomen, što više govorimo o tome, to je veći rizik da se zakotrlja inflacijska spirala koju je teže spustiti.”

“Kamate će rasti, građani će se već sad mogu zaštititi”

Komentirajući kamate na kredite Šošić je objasnio:

- U listopadu prošle godine, kad je postalo očito da inflacije ide, upozorili smo da će kamate rasti. Očekivala se normalizacija monetarne politike, očekivanja su se malo promijenila, skokovi ne bi trebali biti nagli. Za Europsku središnju banku tržišno očekivanja je oko pola postotnog boda povećanje kamatne stope. Na nekim se tržištima taj rast vidi, Hrvatska se skuplje zadužila kad je izdavala obveznice pa se rast kamatnih stopa već vidi.

Svaki kredit je drugačiji – oni s fiksnom stopom su zaštićeni. Oni koji imaju varijabilnu, opet nije isto uz što je vezana kamatna stopa. Rast od jedan do dva postotnih boda za one koji imaju kredit na 20-ak godina, moglo bi značiti 10 do 20 posto veću ratu, to bi bio neki najgori scenarij – dakle oko 400 kuna na kredit od 4.000 kn. Sugestija građanima je da pogledaju kakvu stopu imaju, možda reprogramiraju, promijene banku… Neka pitaju osobne bankare, raspitaju se o zaštiti, još ima vremena za promijeniti kredite, kazao je stručnjak za N1.

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Vedran Šošić, glavni ekonomist HNB-a, gostovao je u N1 Studiju uživo gdje je komentirao inflaciju i što građani mogu očekivati od cijena i kamatnih stopa.

Na pitanje kad bi se cijene mogle vratiti u normalu, Vedran Šošić odgovara:

- Trenutno se očekuje da bi inflacija mogla dosegnuti vrhunac u drugom tromjesečju, nakon vrhunca cijena struje u plina, a krajem godine bi se trebala ispuhivati. Cijene sirovina i energenata dale su poticaj rastu inflacije. Muči nas cijena nafte, to je teško predviđati, skočile su na između 90 i 100 dolara. Očekuje se blago spuštanje prema kraju godine, ali sve je to velika neizvjesnost.

Cijene energije su se brzo prenijele na crpke, još doduše imamo ograničenje cijena benzina, kod plina ćemo vidjeti u travnju što će se dogoditi – imamo paket koji bi trebao ublažiti prelijevanje. Hrana trenutno daje najveći doprinos inflaciji, cijene rastu prema zadnjim podacima oko 8 posto, čak i više.

Proizvođačke cijene prehrane su rasle oko 4 posto, manje nego u maloprodaji. Trgovci kažu da nastoje očeuvati i preuzeti na marže dio rasta troškova, no po statistici čini se da marže nisu smanjivali. Puno onoga što se događalo prošle godine već je apsorbirano u cijenama, ne bi se trebalo dalje vidjeti u narednim mjesecima, zaključio je za N1.

Kaže da je moguće da se iskorištava rast cijena sirovina za poskupljenje krajnjeg proizvoda: “Moguće da i toga ima. To je i najveća opasnost. Inflacija je i psihološki fenomen, što više govorimo o tome, to je veći rizik da se zakotrlja inflacijska spirala koju je teže spustiti.”

“Kamate će rasti, građani će se već sad mogu zaštititi”

Komentirajući kamate na kredite Šošić je objasnio:

- U listopadu prošle godine, kad je postalo očito da inflacije ide, upozorili smo da će kamate rasti. Očekivala se normalizacija monetarne politike, očekivanja su se malo promijenila, skokovi ne bi trebali biti nagli. Za Europsku središnju banku tržišno očekivanja je oko pola postotnog boda povećanje kamatne stope. Na nekim se tržištima taj rast vidi, Hrvatska se skuplje zadužila kad je izdavala obveznice pa se rast kamatnih stopa već vidi.

Svaki kredit je drugačiji – oni s fiksnom stopom su zaštićeni. Oni koji imaju varijabilnu, opet nije isto uz što je vezana kamatna stopa. Rast od jedan do dva postotnih boda za one koji imaju kredit na 20-ak godina, moglo bi značiti 10 do 20 posto veću ratu, to bi bio neki najgori scenarij – dakle oko 400 kuna na kredit od 4.000 kn. Sugestija građanima je da pogledaju kakvu stopu imaju, možda reprogramiraju, promijene banku… Neka pitaju osobne bankare, raspitaju se o zaštiti, još ima vremena za promijeniti kredite, kazao je stručnjak za N1.

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Neja Markičević/Cropix Tom Dubravec/Cropix Davor Pongračić/Cropix
Tom Dubravec/Cropix
Ilustracija
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StoryEditorOCM
HrvatskaJoš ima vremena

Glavni ekonomist HNB-a: ‘U najgorem scenariju građanima će kredit od 4.000 kn rasti za oko 400 kn‘; Već se sad možete zaštititi, evo kako

Piše PSD
14. veljače 2022. - 13:42
Ilustracija
PREMIUM
Galerija
IlustracijaNeja Markičević/Cropix

Vedran Šošić, glavni ekonomist HNB-a, gostovao je u N1 Studiju uživo gdje je komentirao inflaciju i što građani mogu očekivati od cijena i kamatnih stopa.

Na pitanje kad bi se cijene mogle vratiti u normalu, Vedran Šošić odgovara:

- Trenutno se očekuje da bi inflacija mogla dosegnuti vrhunac u drugom tromjesečju, nakon vrhunca cijena struje u plina, a krajem godine bi se trebala ispuhivati. Cijene sirovina i energenata dale su poticaj rastu inflacije. Muči nas cijena nafte, to je teško predviđati, skočile su na između 90 i 100 dolara. Očekuje se blago spuštanje prema kraju godine, ali sve je to velika neizvjesnost.

Cijene energije su se brzo prenijele na crpke, još doduše imamo ograničenje cijena benzina, kod plina ćemo vidjeti u travnju što će se dogoditi –...

#KREDITI#KAMATE
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20. svibanj 2024 22:54