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Dejan Kovač, istraživač s Princetona i kandidat na posljednjim hrvatskim predsjedničkim izborima, upozorio je na loše startne pozicije s kojih RH ulazi u, kako je naglasio, moguću recesiju.

- Bitna činjenica je da smo prije zadnje krize imali znatno niži udio duga u BDP-u od nekih 37 posto, da bi se u izgubljenom desetljeću bez ikakvih strukturnih reformi popeo i na 85 posto, jer nam se cijela ekonomska politika svela na dodatno zaduživanje. Sada je dvostruko veći prilikom ulaska u moguću novu recesiju. Ponavljam, "moguću recesiju" - naveo je.

Po njemu je utješno da i ostatak zemalja koje su ovisne o turizmu ima još puno veći porast odnosa duga i BDP-a iz istog razloga - prevelikog oslanjanja na tu granu i manjak strukturnih reformi.

- Ta politika "dok ide, nek ide", postaje ekonomski pogubna upravo u ovakvim situacijama, kada nastupi vanjski šok koji je upravo usmjeren na turizam i vezane grane. Da ne spominjemo da će 15 posto našeg izvoza u Italiju isto doživjeti ogroman šok.
Pokazao sam dvije metodologije mjerenja udjela turizma u BDP-u, po jednoj smo na nekih 12 posto, a po drugoj preko 20 posto. Bez obzira na točnost pojedine metodologije, bitna činjenica je da je oslanjanje Hrvatske na turizam pet do 10 puta veće od svjetskog prosjeka - upozorio je istraživač uglednog američkog sveučilišta.

Hrvatsku pri tome komparira s Češkom za koju smo, kaže, prije 30 godina bili pojam ekonomskog razvoja, dok ta zemlja danas drži izuzetno niske razine odnosa duga i BDP-a, na oko 30 posto, jer ima održivu ekonomsku strategiju.

- Rentijerska politika u turizmu kroz dizanje kredita za apartmane, gdje se uz visoke cijene ne nude nikakvi sadržaji, kratkog je daha. A da ne pričam da je napravila ogromnu socijalnu nejednakost u društvu, gdje su "izabrani" postali kapitalisti, a oni bez veza njihovi potlačeni radnici, koji se sada zbog nepravde masovno iseljavaju. Da se razumijemo, ovakva podjela je legitimna kada ju definira preživljavanje na tržištu, ali nije legitimna kad ju definira politička pripadnost određenom klanu - secirao je Dejan Kovač.

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Dejan Kovač, istraživač s Princetona i kandidat na posljednjim hrvatskim predsjedničkim izborima, upozorio je na loše startne pozicije s kojih RH ulazi u, kako je naglasio, moguću recesiju.

- Bitna činjenica je da smo prije zadnje krize imali znatno niži udio duga u BDP-u od nekih 37 posto, da bi se u izgubljenom desetljeću bez ikakvih strukturnih reformi popeo i na 85 posto, jer nam se cijela ekonomska politika svela na dodatno zaduživanje. Sada je dvostruko veći prilikom ulaska u moguću novu recesiju. Ponavljam, "moguću recesiju" - naveo je.

Po njemu je utješno da i ostatak zemalja koje su ovisne o turizmu ima još puno veći porast odnosa duga i BDP-a iz istog razloga - prevelikog oslanjanja na tu granu i manjak strukturnih reformi.

- Ta politika "dok ide, nek ide", postaje ekonomski pogubna upravo u ovakvim situacijama, kada nastupi vanjski šok koji je upravo usmjeren na turizam i vezane grane. Da ne spominjemo da će 15 posto našeg izvoza u Italiju isto doživjeti ogroman šok.
Pokazao sam dvije metodologije mjerenja udjela turizma u BDP-u, po jednoj smo na nekih 12 posto, a po drugoj preko 20 posto. Bez obzira na točnost pojedine metodologije, bitna činjenica je da je oslanjanje Hrvatske na turizam pet do 10 puta veće od svjetskog prosjeka - upozorio je istraživač uglednog američkog sveučilišta.

Hrvatsku pri tome komparira s Češkom za koju smo, kaže, prije 30 godina bili pojam ekonomskog razvoja, dok ta zemlja danas drži izuzetno niske razine odnosa duga i BDP-a, na oko 30 posto, jer ima održivu ekonomsku strategiju.

- Rentijerska politika u turizmu kroz dizanje kredita za apartmane, gdje se uz visoke cijene ne nude nikakvi sadržaji, kratkog je daha. A da ne pričam da je napravila ogromnu socijalnu nejednakost u društvu, gdje su "izabrani" postali kapitalisti, a oni bez veza njihovi potlačeni radnici, koji se sada zbog nepravde masovno iseljavaju. Da se razumijemo, ovakva podjela je legitimna kada ju definira preživljavanje na tržištu, ali nije legitimna kad ju definira politička pripadnost određenom klanu - secirao je Dejan Kovač.

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Dejan Kovač uputio je jasnu poruku s Princetona
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Upozorenje s Princetona: Hrvatska je u velikoj opasnosti od nove recesije jer je danas ekonomski puno ranjivija nego prije posljednje krize

Piše Zoran Šagolj
13. ožujka 2020. - 10:34
12611578
PREMIUM
Tom Dubravec/Hanza Media

Dejan Kovač, istraživač s Princetona i kandidat na posljednjim hrvatskim predsjedničkim izborima, upozorio je na loše startne pozicije s kojih RH ulazi u, kako je naglasio, moguću recesiju.

- Bitna činjenica je da smo prije zadnje krize imali znatno niži udio duga u BDP-u od nekih 37 posto, da bi se u izgubljenom desetljeću bez ikakvih strukturnih reformi popeo i na 85 posto, jer nam se cijela ekonomska politika svela na dodatno zaduživanje. Sada je dvostruko veći prilikom ulaska u moguću novu recesiju. Ponavljam, "moguću recesiju" - naveo je.

Po njemu je utješno da i ostatak zemalja koje su ovisne o turizmu ima još puno veći porast odnosa duga i BDP-a iz istog razloga - prevelikog oslanjanja na tu granu i manjak strukturnih reformi.

- Ta politika "dok ide, nek ide", post...

#DEJAN KOVAČ#KORONAVIRUS#TURIZAM, ANALIZA
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19. svibanj 2024 06:53