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[title] => Dolar je prošlog tjedna oslabio u odnosu na ostale najjače svjetske valute
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Na svjetskim je tržištima vrijednost dolara prema košarici valuta prošloga tjedna pala, nakon znatnih oscilacija, jer je na tržištu prevladalo uvjerenje da američka središnja banka ipak neće tako skoro mijenjati smjer monetarne politike.
Dolarov indeks, koji pokazuje kretanje američke prema ostalih šest najvažnijih svjetskih valuta, oslabio je prošloga tjedna 0,35 posto, na 89,99 bodova, a u jednom je trenutku zaronio na najnižu razinu u četiri mjeseca.
Pritom je tečaj dolara prema japanskoj valuti skliznuo 0,4 posto, na 108,95 jena.
Američka je valuta oslabila i u odnosu na europsku, za 0,3 posto, pa je cijena eura dosegnula 1,2182 dolara.
Polovicom tjedna dolar je ojačao, nakon objave zapisnika s posljednje sjednice Feda, koji je pokazao da nekoliko čelnika smatra da bi, u slučaju daljnjeg rapidnog rasta gospodarstva, za neko vrijeme trebalo otvoriti raspravu o smanjenju programa otkupa državnih obveznica, koji je pokrenut kako bi se poboljšala likvidnost financijskog sustava i održale niske kamatne stope.
To je podržalo uspon dolara jer to znači da bi uskoro Fed mogao početi smanjivati poticaje koji već godinu dana podržavaju oporavak gospodarstva od koronakrize i rast Wall Streeta.
„Zapravo, to su uglavnom i očekivanja na tržištima. Ulagači očekuju snažnije signale tijekom ljeta, a smanjivanje monetarnih poticaja očekuje se u prosincu. To nam pokazuje u kojem smjeru idemo i trebalo bi ukloniti dio neizvjesnosti s tržišta. Stoga se bilježi blagi rast prinosa na državne obveznice i uspon tečaja dolara”, kaže Rob Carnell, ekonomist u ING-u.
Ipak, krajem tjedna dolar je izgubio prethodne dobitke jer je na tržištu prevladalo uvjerenje da Fed ipak neće tako skoro mijenjati smjer monetarne politike, posebice s obzirom na upozorenja iz središnje banke da stanje na tržištu rada još ni izdaleka ne opravdava promjene.
Dužnosnici Feda već dulje vrijeme poručuju i da bi inflacija mogla ubrzati, ali tek privremeno.
"Silna zabrinutost zbog pukog razgovora o smanjenju poticaja, otkrivenog u ovog tjedna objavljenom Fedovom zapisniku, očito je splasnula i ulagači su ponovo fokusirani na upornu temeljnu poruku da se politika neće tako skoro mijenjati", tumači Joel Kruger iz LMAX Groupa.
U fokusu ulagača bile su prošloga tjedna i oštre oscilacije cijena kriptovaluta, kao što su bitcoin i ether, što je ponajviše posljedica odluke Kine da financijskim institucijama zabrani pružanje usluga povezanih s transakcijama kriptovalutama.
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Na svjetskim je tržištima vrijednost dolara prema košarici valuta prošloga tjedna pala, nakon znatnih oscilacija, jer je na tržištu prevladalo uvjerenje da američka središnja banka ipak neće tako skoro mijenjati smjer monetarne politike.
Dolarov indeks, koji pokazuje kretanje američke prema ostalih šest najvažnijih svjetskih valuta, oslabio je prošloga tjedna 0,35 posto, na 89,99 bodova, a u jednom je trenutku zaronio na najnižu razinu u četiri mjeseca.
Pritom je tečaj dolara prema japanskoj valuti skliznuo 0,4 posto, na 108,95 jena.
Američka je valuta oslabila i u odnosu na europsku, za 0,3 posto, pa je cijena eura dosegnula 1,2182 dolara.
Polovicom tjedna dolar je ojačao, nakon objave zapisnika s posljednje sjednice Feda, koji je pokazao da nekoliko čelnika smatra da bi, u slučaju daljnjeg rapidnog rasta gospodarstva, za neko vrijeme trebalo otvoriti raspravu o smanjenju programa otkupa državnih obveznica, koji je pokrenut kako bi se poboljšala likvidnost financijskog sustava i održale niske kamatne stope.
To je podržalo uspon dolara jer to znači da bi uskoro Fed mogao početi smanjivati poticaje koji već godinu dana podržavaju oporavak gospodarstva od koronakrize i rast Wall Streeta.
„Zapravo, to su uglavnom i očekivanja na tržištima. Ulagači očekuju snažnije signale tijekom ljeta, a smanjivanje monetarnih poticaja očekuje se u prosincu. To nam pokazuje u kojem smjeru idemo i trebalo bi ukloniti dio neizvjesnosti s tržišta. Stoga se bilježi blagi rast prinosa na državne obveznice i uspon tečaja dolara”, kaže Rob Carnell, ekonomist u ING-u.
Ipak, krajem tjedna dolar je izgubio prethodne dobitke jer je na tržištu prevladalo uvjerenje da Fed ipak neće tako skoro mijenjati smjer monetarne politike, posebice s obzirom na upozorenja iz središnje banke da stanje na tržištu rada još ni izdaleka ne opravdava promjene.
Dužnosnici Feda već dulje vrijeme poručuju i da bi inflacija mogla ubrzati, ali tek privremeno.
"Silna zabrinutost zbog pukog razgovora o smanjenju poticaja, otkrivenog u ovog tjedna objavljenom Fedovom zapisniku, očito je splasnula i ulagači su ponovo fokusirani na upornu temeljnu poruku da se politika neće tako skoro mijenjati", tumači Joel Kruger iz LMAX Groupa.
U fokusu ulagača bile su prošloga tjedna i oštre oscilacije cijena kriptovaluta, kao što su bitcoin i ether, što je ponajviše posljedica odluke Kine da financijskim institucijama zabrani pružanje usluga povezanih s transakcijama kriptovalutama.
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12. svibanj 2024 09:07
