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Nova godina bit će teška za većinu svjetskog gospodarstva, teža od prošle, zbog istodobnog usporavanja SAD-a, Kine i Europe, naglasila je šefica Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF), procijenivši da će "pola EU-a" biti u recesiji u 2023.
U redovnim jesenjim prognozama u listopadu prošle godine MMF je bio upozorio da će trećina svjetskog gospodarstva vjerojatno bilježiti pad u 2022. ili 2023. godini zbog pada realnog dohotka i rasta cijena.
Aktivnost bi u 2022. trebala porasti za 3,2 posto, a u 2023. rast bi trebao usporiti za 2,7 posto, prognozirali su.
Baza usporavanja u 2023. bit će široka, napisao je u listopadu na blogu ekonomist MMF-a Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, dodavši da bi zemlje koje čine otprilike trećinu svjetskog gospodarstva mogle zabilježiti pad aktivnosti u ovoj ili idućoj godini.
U SAD-u, Kini i eurozoni aktivnost će gotovo stagnirati, ustvrdio je tada Gourinchas.
"Jako važni" koraci SAD-a
Šokovi u 2022. ponovo će otvoriti rane u gospodarstvu koje su tek djelomično zacijelile nakon pandemije, dodao je, zaključivši da najgore tek dolazi i mnogim će ljudima 2023. imati obilježja recesije.
Izvršna direktorica MMF-a Kristalina Georgieva ponovila je u intervjuu za američku televiziju CBS, emitiranom u nedjelju, ocjenu da će nova godina biti teža od prošle, zbog istodobnog usporavanja tri velika svjetska gospodarstva.
- SAD je najotporniji, vidimo da je tržište rada i dalje prilično snažno. No, to ima i svoju lošu stranu jer će (središnja banka) Fed, bude li tržište rada vrlo snažno, možda biti prisiljena zadržati kamatne stope na višoj razini kroz dulje vrijeme kako bi ublažila inflaciju, tumači Georgieva.
SAD je poduzeo neke "jako važne" korake koji pomažu njegovom gospodarstvu, izjavila je, prema transkriptu intervjua, objavljenom na internetskoj stranici CBS-a, izdvojivši zakone o infrastrukturi i o borbi protiv inflacije.
- To su stvari koje donose više dinamike u SAD. A to je dobro za SAD i dobro je za svijet. Naravno da će nastavak takve politike donijeti više izazova, ali zaista se nadam da SAD neće kliznuti u recesiju, unatoč svim tim rizicima, istaknula je.
Zakon o borbi protiv inflacije izazvao je val kritika u Europi koja strahuje da bi jeftnija energija i poticaji za zelene tehnologije mogli odmamiti njezine kompanije na drugu stranu Atlantika.
Teška zima u Europi
EU je pak jako teško pogodio rat u Ukrajini, izjavila je šefica MMF-a, prema transkriptu intervjua, objavljenom na CBS-ovoj web-stranici.
- Pola Europske unije bit će iduće (2023. op.a.) godine u recesiji - ustvrdila je.
- Promatramo odgovor na energetski šok u Europi i (vidimo) da Europa odlučno ide u smjeru neovisnosti o Rusiji. Da, zima će biti teška, iduća možda još i teža, ali oslobodit će se ovisnosti o Rusiji. Postići će taj cilj - smatra šefica MMF-a.
Nova godina bit će teška i za Kinu, dodala je, a to će se pretočiti u negativne trendove na globalnoj razini.
Prema prognozama iz listopada, kinesko gospodarstvo poraslo je prošle godine 3,2 posto, a u 2023. rast bi trebao ubrzati na 4,3 posto. U SAD-u aktivnost je lani uvećana za 1,6 posto, a u 2023. trebala bi usporiti na jedan posto.
U eurozoni gospodarstvo bi ove godine trebalo gotovo stagnirati, uz prognoziranu stopu rasta od 0,5 posto, nakon 3,1-postotnog rasta u 2022.
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Nova godina bit će teška za većinu svjetskog gospodarstva, teža od prošle, zbog istodobnog usporavanja SAD-a, Kine i Europe, naglasila je šefica Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF), procijenivši da će "pola EU-a" biti u recesiji u 2023.
U redovnim jesenjim prognozama u listopadu prošle godine MMF je bio upozorio da će trećina svjetskog gospodarstva vjerojatno bilježiti pad u 2022. ili 2023. godini zbog pada realnog dohotka i rasta cijena.
Aktivnost bi u 2022. trebala porasti za 3,2 posto, a u 2023. rast bi trebao usporiti za 2,7 posto, prognozirali su.
Baza usporavanja u 2023. bit će široka, napisao je u listopadu na blogu ekonomist MMF-a Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, dodavši da bi zemlje koje čine otprilike trećinu svjetskog gospodarstva mogle zabilježiti pad aktivnosti u ovoj ili idućoj godini.
U SAD-u, Kini i eurozoni aktivnost će gotovo stagnirati, ustvrdio je tada Gourinchas.
"Jako važni" koraci SAD-a
Šokovi u 2022. ponovo će otvoriti rane u gospodarstvu koje su tek djelomično zacijelile nakon pandemije, dodao je, zaključivši da najgore tek dolazi i mnogim će ljudima 2023. imati obilježja recesije.
Izvršna direktorica MMF-a Kristalina Georgieva ponovila je u intervjuu za američku televiziju CBS, emitiranom u nedjelju, ocjenu da će nova godina biti teža od prošle, zbog istodobnog usporavanja tri velika svjetska gospodarstva.
- SAD je najotporniji, vidimo da je tržište rada i dalje prilično snažno. No, to ima i svoju lošu stranu jer će (središnja banka) Fed, bude li tržište rada vrlo snažno, možda biti prisiljena zadržati kamatne stope na višoj razini kroz dulje vrijeme kako bi ublažila inflaciju, tumači Georgieva.
SAD je poduzeo neke "jako važne" korake koji pomažu njegovom gospodarstvu, izjavila je, prema transkriptu intervjua, objavljenom na internetskoj stranici CBS-a, izdvojivši zakone o infrastrukturi i o borbi protiv inflacije.
- To su stvari koje donose više dinamike u SAD. A to je dobro za SAD i dobro je za svijet. Naravno da će nastavak takve politike donijeti više izazova, ali zaista se nadam da SAD neće kliznuti u recesiju, unatoč svim tim rizicima, istaknula je.
Zakon o borbi protiv inflacije izazvao je val kritika u Europi koja strahuje da bi jeftnija energija i poticaji za zelene tehnologije mogli odmamiti njezine kompanije na drugu stranu Atlantika.
Teška zima u Europi
EU je pak jako teško pogodio rat u Ukrajini, izjavila je šefica MMF-a, prema transkriptu intervjua, objavljenom na CBS-ovoj web-stranici.
- Pola Europske unije bit će iduće (2023. op.a.) godine u recesiji - ustvrdila je.
- Promatramo odgovor na energetski šok u Europi i (vidimo) da Europa odlučno ide u smjeru neovisnosti o Rusiji. Da, zima će biti teška, iduća možda još i teža, ali oslobodit će se ovisnosti o Rusiji. Postići će taj cilj - smatra šefica MMF-a.
Nova godina bit će teška i za Kinu, dodala je, a to će se pretočiti u negativne trendove na globalnoj razini.
Prema prognozama iz listopada, kinesko gospodarstvo poraslo je prošle godine 3,2 posto, a u 2023. rast bi trebao ubrzati na 4,3 posto. U SAD-u aktivnost je lani uvećana za 1,6 posto, a u 2023. trebala bi usporiti na jedan posto.
U eurozoni gospodarstvo bi ove godine trebalo gotovo stagnirati, uz prognoziranu stopu rasta od 0,5 posto, nakon 3,1-postotnog rasta u 2022.
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15. svibanj 2024 10:08
