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[title] => Satelitske snimke otkrile Putinov plan za odlučujuću bitku? Kremlj možda priprema veliki napad: ‘Zabrinuti su, ali...‘
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"Putinov plan preventivnog udara otkriven na satelitskim fotografijama", naslov je velike analize američkog The Daily Beasta koja se temelji na satelitskim snimkama ukrajinskih bojišnica. Snimke, naime, upućuje na to da ruska armija ubrzano gradi ozbiljnu mrežu utvrda i rovova duž fronte što sugerira kako Rusija očito očekuje novu rundu snažnih borbi, odnosno skoru ukrajinsku ofenzivu širokih razmjera, prenosi Jutarnji.
Obavještajni analitičar Brady Africk tvrdi kako ruska armija gradi utvrde duž cijele fronte u Lugansku - od ruske granice do Donjecka, ali i u regijama Zaporožje i Herson. Satelitske snimke, piše The Daily Beast, ukazuju i na moguću nervozu Moskve zbog mogućeg pokretanja ukrajinske protuofenzive u nadolazećim tjednima, a možda čak i na to da sami pripremaju (protu)ofenzivu.
- Rusi u osnovi pokušavaju konsolidirati i zadržati dijelove Ukrajine koje su dosad osvojili. Svojim vojnicima koji ratuju u Ukrajini poručuju kako ruska armija tamo misli (trajno) ostati - kaže Africk.
Gradnja utvrda
William Courtney, nekadašnji posebni pomoćnik američkog predsjednika za Rusiju, Ukrajinu i Euroaziju, kaže kako bi nedavna izgradnja utvrda, koje su vidljive na spomenutim satelitskim snimkama, mogla značiti da su ruske snage ozbiljno zabrinute za gubitak vlasti u nekoliko ukrajinskih regija koje su dosad okupirale.
- Rusi očekuju protuofenzive i znaju da će Ukrajincima Zapad osigurati još više i još bolju opremu. Oni znaju da je Zapad već poslao puno topničkog oružja koje se može upotrijebiti za probijanje njihovih utvrda - kaže.
Analiza Instituta za proučavanje rata (ISW) također sugerira da se Rusija priprema za obranu.
- Ruske snage očito su zabrinute zbog ukrajinskog napredovanja i žele biti u mogućnosti osigurati sve svoje linije u slučaju ukrajinskog napada. Vrsta utvrda koje vidimo sugerira obrambenu namjeru - kaže ISW-ova analitičarka Karolina Hird.
U tekstu se dalje tvrdi kako Rusija koristi hladne zimske mjesece za pregrupiranje, obuku, ponovno opremanje i pripremu za sljedeće korake u ratu, nakon što su im ukrajinske snage lani zadale niz poraza. Zapadne zemlje konačno su odlučile poslati moderne tenkove u Ukrajinu što bi moglo promijeniti "igru" na bojišnici. Američki predsjednik Joe Biden objavio je u srijedu da će SAD poslati tenkove Abrams, baš kao što je njemačka vlada objavila da će poslati svoje Leoparde, te dopusti drugim zemljama da pošalju tenkove njemačke proizvodnje u Ukrajinu.
Priprema ofenzive
Na koncu, analitičarka ISW-a poručuje kako bi izgradnja utvrda i gomilanje ruskih snaga duž bojišnica također moglo značiti i da Rusija sama priprema veliku ofenzivu.
- Posjedovanje snažno utvrđenih obrambenih linija također omogućuje da ruske snage te linije mogu koristiti i kao lansirne rampe za vlastite ofenzive - kaže Hird.
Postoje i drugi pokazatelji iz Rusije da Kremlj možda priprema veliki napad ove godine. Prema analizi ukrajinske Glavne obavještajne uprave Ministarstva obrane, ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin već je naredio vojnim zapovjednicima da do ožujka zauzmu cijeli Donbas.
Da je ruska ofenziva vrlo moguća, smatra i Bijela kuća.
- Možete očekivati da će Rusi ubrzati tempo, moramo biti spremni na to. Također, vidjeli smo da se ruske snage možda pripremaju za neku vrstu odlučujućeg poteza u Luganskoj oblasti, što možemo vidjeti i po ovoj vrlo snažnoj obrambenoj crti koja se proteže cijelom granicom Luganska, posebno na liniji Svatove-Kremina - zaključuje analitičarka ISW-a.
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"Putinov plan preventivnog udara otkriven na satelitskim fotografijama", naslov je velike analize američkog The Daily Beasta koja se temelji na satelitskim snimkama ukrajinskih bojišnica. Snimke, naime, upućuje na to da ruska armija ubrzano gradi ozbiljnu mrežu utvrda i rovova duž fronte što sugerira kako Rusija očito očekuje novu rundu snažnih borbi, odnosno skoru ukrajinsku ofenzivu širokih razmjera, prenosi Jutarnji.
Obavještajni analitičar Brady Africk tvrdi kako ruska armija gradi utvrde duž cijele fronte u Lugansku - od ruske granice do Donjecka, ali i u regijama Zaporožje i Herson. Satelitske snimke, piše The Daily Beast, ukazuju i na moguću nervozu Moskve zbog mogućeg pokretanja ukrajinske protuofenzive u nadolazećim tjednima, a možda čak i na to da sami pripremaju (protu)ofenzivu.
- Rusi u osnovi pokušavaju konsolidirati i zadržati dijelove Ukrajine koje su dosad osvojili. Svojim vojnicima koji ratuju u Ukrajini poručuju kako ruska armija tamo misli (trajno) ostati - kaže Africk.
Gradnja utvrda
William Courtney, nekadašnji posebni pomoćnik američkog predsjednika za Rusiju, Ukrajinu i Euroaziju, kaže kako bi nedavna izgradnja utvrda, koje su vidljive na spomenutim satelitskim snimkama, mogla značiti da su ruske snage ozbiljno zabrinute za gubitak vlasti u nekoliko ukrajinskih regija koje su dosad okupirale.
- Rusi očekuju protuofenzive i znaju da će Ukrajincima Zapad osigurati još više i još bolju opremu. Oni znaju da je Zapad već poslao puno topničkog oružja koje se može upotrijebiti za probijanje njihovih utvrda - kaže.
Analiza Instituta za proučavanje rata (ISW) također sugerira da se Rusija priprema za obranu.
- Ruske snage očito su zabrinute zbog ukrajinskog napredovanja i žele biti u mogućnosti osigurati sve svoje linije u slučaju ukrajinskog napada. Vrsta utvrda koje vidimo sugerira obrambenu namjeru - kaže ISW-ova analitičarka Karolina Hird.
U tekstu se dalje tvrdi kako Rusija koristi hladne zimske mjesece za pregrupiranje, obuku, ponovno opremanje i pripremu za sljedeće korake u ratu, nakon što su im ukrajinske snage lani zadale niz poraza. Zapadne zemlje konačno su odlučile poslati moderne tenkove u Ukrajinu što bi moglo promijeniti "igru" na bojišnici. Američki predsjednik Joe Biden objavio je u srijedu da će SAD poslati tenkove Abrams, baš kao što je njemačka vlada objavila da će poslati svoje Leoparde, te dopusti drugim zemljama da pošalju tenkove njemačke proizvodnje u Ukrajinu.
Priprema ofenzive
Na koncu, analitičarka ISW-a poručuje kako bi izgradnja utvrda i gomilanje ruskih snaga duž bojišnica također moglo značiti i da Rusija sama priprema veliku ofenzivu.
- Posjedovanje snažno utvrđenih obrambenih linija također omogućuje da ruske snage te linije mogu koristiti i kao lansirne rampe za vlastite ofenzive - kaže Hird.
Postoje i drugi pokazatelji iz Rusije da Kremlj možda priprema veliki napad ove godine. Prema analizi ukrajinske Glavne obavještajne uprave Ministarstva obrane, ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin već je naredio vojnim zapovjednicima da do ožujka zauzmu cijeli Donbas.
Da je ruska ofenziva vrlo moguća, smatra i Bijela kuća.
- Možete očekivati da će Rusi ubrzati tempo, moramo biti spremni na to. Također, vidjeli smo da se ruske snage možda pripremaju za neku vrstu odlučujućeg poteza u Luganskoj oblasti, što možemo vidjeti i po ovoj vrlo snažnoj obrambenoj crti koja se proteže cijelom granicom Luganska, posebno na liniji Svatove-Kremina - zaključuje analitičarka ISW-a.
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16. svibanj 2024 06:08
