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[title] => Novotny: Države poput Njemačke i Češke mogu se odlučiti na još jedan lockdown, ali Hrvatska to ne bi izdržala
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Ekonomski analitičar Damir Novotny gostovao je u Novom danu gdje je komentirao ekonomsku situaciju u zemlji te moguće daljnje posljedice koronakrize.
Komentirajući današnju odluku o kraju moratorija na ovrhe, Damir Novotny je rekao da nije baš dobro vrijeme za tu odluku jer će kriza vjerojatno trajati još neko vrijeme, a to znači da će i dio građana imati umanjene dohotke ili neće uopće primati dohodak.
Gotovo 200.000 građana ima dugove do deset tisuća kuna, a njih gotovo 100.000 duguju i do sto tisuća kuna. Na pitanje smatra li da je postojeći sustav dobar, Novotny odgovara da vjerojatno nije:
"Da je sustav dobar, ne bi imali tako velik broj blokiranih, i građana i mikropoduzetnika. Godinama već zagovaram strukturnu izmjenu sustava. Dugovi se moraju vratiti, naši građani su skloni zaduživanju za razliku od drugih srednjeeuropskih zemalja. Kod nas ulaze u dužničke odnose zbog nemogućnosti ostvarivanja normalnih dohodaka prema njihovim očekivanjima. Morali bismo promijeniti sustav naplate koji je prepun problema.
Osnovni dug se mora vratiti, ali zatezne kamate su dva destljeća bile iznimno visoke i još su visoke, one stvaraju ovu neodrživu situaciju. Previše je sudionika u tom procesu. Za hrvatske prilike bio bi prihvatljiv njemački model ovršnih postupaka te izbjegavanje trajne blokade računa čime velik dio sugrađana tjeramo iz ekonomskog sustava i prisiljavamo velik broj njih na sivu ekonomiju. Tako stvaraju dohotke u neformalnom dijelu ekonomije, ne plaćaju poreze i pokušavaju podmiriti dugove."
Smatra da je rješenje dogovor s bankama, a zakonska rješenja bi ih trebala usmjeravati na nagodbe.
Govoreći o posljedicama cjelokupne pandemijske krize, ali i novog vala koronavirusa, rekao je: "Hrvatska je u opću recesiju ušla daleko najmanje spremna u odnosu na druge zemlje EU. Ne možemo izdržati još jedan lockdown. Velik dio ekonomije ovisi o direktnom sektoru, o ponuđačima i primateljima usluge. Imamo velik strukturni problem koji se vuče desetljećima, nismo dovoljno akvitnosti usmjerevali prema realnom sektoru. Dobavljači servisnih ekonomija će se morati prilagoditi.
Mislim da će biti teško balansirati potrebu da se ekonomske aktivnosti nastave. Dio ponuđača ugostiteljskih usluga vjerojatno neće moći preživjeti krizu ni uz pomoć Vladihin mjera. Čitav je niz pritisaka koji ovu krizu čine najdubljom ekonomskom krizom u povijesti prostora moderne Hrvatske. Vlada više nema rezervi na koje može računati za pomoć poduzetnicima i poduzećima, očekuje se pomoć EU fonda, no to će biti na raspolaganju tek u proljeće."
Vlada je najavila još jedan set pomoći gospodarstvu, ali zemlje koje imaju nizak javni dug, koje nemaju fiskalnih rezervi, mogu se odlučiti na lockdown, poput Njemačke i Češke, ali zemlje s visokim javnim dugom nemaju fiskalnih rezervi, istaknuo je Novotny i dodao:
"Hrvatska je propustila cijelo desetljeće ekonomskog rasta i stvaranja akumulacija pričuva i sad se nalazimo u situaciji da ekonomska aktivnost pada, rezerve nemamo. Potpuni lockdown bi do kraja erodirao ekonomski sustav koji bi se nakon izlaska iz epidemiološke krize teško oporavio. Kriza ima pozitivne aspekte - pritišće Vladu na razmišljanje da se mora smjer ekonomske pollitike promjeniti i poticati ulaganja u prerađivačkoj industriji. Privatni sektor treba jačati."
Komentirajući značajan rast cijena nekretnina, posebno u Zagrebu, rekao je: "Mislim da su ovom trenu nekretnine precijenjene, posebno u Zagrebu i destinacijama na Jadranu. Iznimno su skupe, nadam se da će doći do korekcije cijena to bi bilo korisno za oporavak od krize i za građane. Ne vjerujem da će se nastaviti trend rasta cijena nekretnina."
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[cleanTitle] => Novotny: Države poput Njemačke i Češke mogu se odlučiti na još jedan lockdown, ali Hrvatska to ne bi izdržala
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Ekonomski analitičar Damir Novotny gostovao je u Novom danu gdje je komentirao ekonomsku situaciju u zemlji te moguće daljnje posljedice koronakrize.
Komentirajući današnju odluku o kraju moratorija na ovrhe, Damir Novotny je rekao da nije baš dobro vrijeme za tu odluku jer će kriza vjerojatno trajati još neko vrijeme, a to znači da će i dio građana imati umanjene dohotke ili neće uopće primati dohodak.
Gotovo 200.000 građana ima dugove do deset tisuća kuna, a njih gotovo 100.000 duguju i do sto tisuća kuna. Na pitanje smatra li da je postojeći sustav dobar, Novotny odgovara da vjerojatno nije:
"Da je sustav dobar, ne bi imali tako velik broj blokiranih, i građana i mikropoduzetnika. Godinama već zagovaram strukturnu izmjenu sustava. Dugovi se moraju vratiti, naši građani su skloni zaduživanju za razliku od drugih srednjeeuropskih zemalja. Kod nas ulaze u dužničke odnose zbog nemogućnosti ostvarivanja normalnih dohodaka prema njihovim očekivanjima. Morali bismo promijeniti sustav naplate koji je prepun problema.
Osnovni dug se mora vratiti, ali zatezne kamate su dva destljeća bile iznimno visoke i još su visoke, one stvaraju ovu neodrživu situaciju. Previše je sudionika u tom procesu. Za hrvatske prilike bio bi prihvatljiv njemački model ovršnih postupaka te izbjegavanje trajne blokade računa čime velik dio sugrađana tjeramo iz ekonomskog sustava i prisiljavamo velik broj njih na sivu ekonomiju. Tako stvaraju dohotke u neformalnom dijelu ekonomije, ne plaćaju poreze i pokušavaju podmiriti dugove."
Smatra da je rješenje dogovor s bankama, a zakonska rješenja bi ih trebala usmjeravati na nagodbe.
Govoreći o posljedicama cjelokupne pandemijske krize, ali i novog vala koronavirusa, rekao je: "Hrvatska je u opću recesiju ušla daleko najmanje spremna u odnosu na druge zemlje EU. Ne možemo izdržati još jedan lockdown. Velik dio ekonomije ovisi o direktnom sektoru, o ponuđačima i primateljima usluge. Imamo velik strukturni problem koji se vuče desetljećima, nismo dovoljno akvitnosti usmjerevali prema realnom sektoru. Dobavljači servisnih ekonomija će se morati prilagoditi.
Mislim da će biti teško balansirati potrebu da se ekonomske aktivnosti nastave. Dio ponuđača ugostiteljskih usluga vjerojatno neće moći preživjeti krizu ni uz pomoć Vladihin mjera. Čitav je niz pritisaka koji ovu krizu čine najdubljom ekonomskom krizom u povijesti prostora moderne Hrvatske. Vlada više nema rezervi na koje može računati za pomoć poduzetnicima i poduzećima, očekuje se pomoć EU fonda, no to će biti na raspolaganju tek u proljeće."
Vlada je najavila još jedan set pomoći gospodarstvu, ali zemlje koje imaju nizak javni dug, koje nemaju fiskalnih rezervi, mogu se odlučiti na lockdown, poput Njemačke i Češke, ali zemlje s visokim javnim dugom nemaju fiskalnih rezervi, istaknuo je Novotny i dodao:
"Hrvatska je propustila cijelo desetljeće ekonomskog rasta i stvaranja akumulacija pričuva i sad se nalazimo u situaciji da ekonomska aktivnost pada, rezerve nemamo. Potpuni lockdown bi do kraja erodirao ekonomski sustav koji bi se nakon izlaska iz epidemiološke krize teško oporavio. Kriza ima pozitivne aspekte - pritišće Vladu na razmišljanje da se mora smjer ekonomske pollitike promjeniti i poticati ulaganja u prerađivačkoj industriji. Privatni sektor treba jačati."
Komentirajući značajan rast cijena nekretnina, posebno u Zagrebu, rekao je: "Mislim da su ovom trenu nekretnine precijenjene, posebno u Zagrebu i destinacijama na Jadranu. Iznimno su skupe, nadam se da će doći do korekcije cijena to bi bilo korisno za oporavak od krize i za građane. Ne vjerujem da će se nastaviti trend rasta cijena nekretnina."
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16. svibanj 2024 09:56
