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[alias] => vijesti-nisu-dobre-hrvatski-matematicar-izracunao-kada-cemo-imati-najvise-zarazenih-uskoro-bismo-ih-mogli-imati-na-stotine
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Matematičar Nenad Bakić je napisao novi status u kojem predviđa da će sljedećih dana i tjedana doći do značajnog porasta broja zaraženih. Prema njegovim analizama najveći broj zaraza će, što se tiče dosadašnjeg ljeta, biti 14. kolovoza, te će i dalje rasti.
Kako donosi Slobodna Dalmacija, prema njegovim projekcijama do sredine kolovoza imat ćemo oko 400 zaraženih. Podsjetimo, danas je u Hrvatskoj bilo 107 novih slučajeva zaraze.
- Nažalost, (vrlo) uspješno sam predvidio rast ovog vala. Kao što možete vidjeti u primjeru... No, pomalo je i zastrašujuća ova preciznost - jer uvjerljivo dokazuje da su paramertri-driveri točni, kao i konstrukcija modela, jer u principu ovakvi 'pogotci' se ne događaju, pogotovo u točkama preokreta - jer to daje veliku vjerojatnost da ovo što slijedi izgleda isto ovako - napisao je, među ostalim, Bakić.
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Bakić je na svojoj stranici Pandemijski realizam napisao i ovo:
- Indijska (delta) varijante zahtjeva veliku pažnju i mijenja pravila igre. UK, jedna od najprocijepljenijih zemalja na svijetu i s najstrožim mjerama ima velik rast slučajeva, a čini se i i svi s kojima su oni bili u intenzivnom doticaju.
Britanska Vlada smatra da više neće moći kontrolirati epidemiju, no smatraju da je poveznica između zaraza i smrti prekinuta (smanjena) zbog cjepiva, ali istovremeno govore o povelikom broju prihvatljivih smrti. UK nam je naročito važna za promatranje jer trenutno imaju veću epidemiju od svih u EU, jako su procijepljeni... Zaista, nove hospitalizacije im rastu puno sporije od slučajeva.
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Pri dolasku britanskog (alfa) soja oslonio sam se podatke iz naših laboratorija, koji nažalost nisu dobro odradili posao i s velikim zakašnjenjem su nas izvjestili o alfi, i to u značajno manjem postotku nego što je bilo. Uočite da zbog eksponencijalne naravi širenja, ‘greška’ od 0,5% do 5% je ista kao i od 5% do 50% - stoga su mi projekcije kasnile (ali ni jedne druge nisu bile preciznije), za što je možda još i više bilo zaslužno veliko kašnjenje proljeća.
Ovaj put pretpostavljam da naši laboratoriji opet kasne, a pogotovo jer nam daju zbrkane podakte (npr. izvještavaju o broju delta slučajeva u 4 županije, bez navođenja postotka u uzorku?!), te pretpostavljam da ga je 9. lipnja već bilo 10% u svim zaraženima. Iako se smatra da se u načelu širi 40%-60% brže od alfa soja, s obzirom na očito zaobilaženje imuniteta, razradio sam scenarij sa 60% bržim širenjem. Prema njemu (pogotovo ako se u Zadarskoj županiji koja novi najveći broj slučajeva širi delta), on će uskoro postati dominantan i do sredine kolovoza potpuno zavladati:
---
---
Pretpostavio sam i tjedni uvoz u početku oko 5%, a kasnije 15% novih slučajeva - Hrvatska ima jedan od najvećih omjera ljetnih turista i stanovnika.
S obzirom na ostale postavke modela dobijamo sljedeći razvoj (u raznim vremenskim perspektivama):
Podsjetimo, piše Slobodna Dalmacija, o 4. valu nam je već govorio i infektolog Ivo Ivić:
- Nažalost, putanja ide prema gore. Ako se ovako nastavi, cijela će Hrvatska biti u crvenome! Mi već lagano počinjemo osjećati pritisak na hitnom prijemu. Prije smo imali između 20 i 30 oboljelih, a sada nam ih dnevno dolazi oko 50. Dok su to mladi ljudi, dobro je, ali dolazi nam i sve više starijih.
Nije dobro, strah me što će se dogoditi sljedećih tjedana, već se pripremamo za sve scenarije. Čeka nas teška jesen i zima i nećemo se tako lako riješiti COVID-a. I sad, da smo svi cijepljeni, broj zaraženih ne bi ni bio važan jer bismo imali malen dio u hospitalizacijama, ali ovako, budući da nam je loša procijepljenost, možemo samo opet očekivati popunjenje bolničke krevete.
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---
A kako je delta soj puno zarazniji od originalne wuhanske inačice, možda ovaj val bude i najgori od svih, trebamo se pripremiti na sve. No, još nije kasno, ljudi se imaju priliku cijepiti.
Stoga još jednom apeliram na sve starije od 40 da se odmah cijepe. Apeliram i na mlađe jer i dio mladih može razviti teške komplikacije. Imali smo slučajeva ljudi u tridesetima koji nisu imali prethodne bolesti, a završili su s teškim komplikacijama ili na respiratoru. Svaki dan idem na posao i razmišljam o tome kako je država omogućila svima besplatno cjepivo, a onda se neki stariji od 50 ne žele cijepiti - rekao je Ivić.
Cijeli intervju pročitajte ovdje: https://slobodnadalmacija.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/raste-broj-oboljelih-sef-splitske-infektologije-nikad-ozbiljniji-poceo-je-4-val-zabranimo-sve-masovke-zbog-delta-soja-virusa-ovaj-val-mozda-bude-i-najgori-pripremamo-se-na-sve-1113569
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Matematičar Nenad Bakić je napisao novi status u kojem predviđa da će sljedećih dana i tjedana doći do značajnog porasta broja zaraženih. Prema njegovim analizama najveći broj zaraza će, što se tiče dosadašnjeg ljeta, biti 14. kolovoza, te će i dalje rasti.
Kako donosi Slobodna Dalmacija, prema njegovim projekcijama do sredine kolovoza imat ćemo oko 400 zaraženih. Podsjetimo, danas je u Hrvatskoj bilo 107 novih slučajeva zaraze.
- Nažalost, (vrlo) uspješno sam predvidio rast ovog vala. Kao što možete vidjeti u primjeru... No, pomalo je i zastrašujuća ova preciznost - jer uvjerljivo dokazuje da su paramertri-driveri točni, kao i konstrukcija modela, jer u principu ovakvi 'pogotci' se ne događaju, pogotovo u točkama preokreta - jer to daje veliku vjerojatnost da ovo što slijedi izgleda isto ovako - napisao je, među ostalim, Bakić.
---
---
Bakić je na svojoj stranici Pandemijski realizam napisao i ovo:
- Indijska (delta) varijante zahtjeva veliku pažnju i mijenja pravila igre. UK, jedna od najprocijepljenijih zemalja na svijetu i s najstrožim mjerama ima velik rast slučajeva, a čini se i i svi s kojima su oni bili u intenzivnom doticaju.
Britanska Vlada smatra da više neće moći kontrolirati epidemiju, no smatraju da je poveznica između zaraza i smrti prekinuta (smanjena) zbog cjepiva, ali istovremeno govore o povelikom broju prihvatljivih smrti. UK nam je naročito važna za promatranje jer trenutno imaju veću epidemiju od svih u EU, jako su procijepljeni... Zaista, nove hospitalizacije im rastu puno sporije od slučajeva.
---
---
Pri dolasku britanskog (alfa) soja oslonio sam se podatke iz naših laboratorija, koji nažalost nisu dobro odradili posao i s velikim zakašnjenjem su nas izvjestili o alfi, i to u značajno manjem postotku nego što je bilo. Uočite da zbog eksponencijalne naravi širenja, ‘greška’ od 0,5% do 5% je ista kao i od 5% do 50% - stoga su mi projekcije kasnile (ali ni jedne druge nisu bile preciznije), za što je možda još i više bilo zaslužno veliko kašnjenje proljeća.
Ovaj put pretpostavljam da naši laboratoriji opet kasne, a pogotovo jer nam daju zbrkane podakte (npr. izvještavaju o broju delta slučajeva u 4 županije, bez navođenja postotka u uzorku?!), te pretpostavljam da ga je 9. lipnja već bilo 10% u svim zaraženima. Iako se smatra da se u načelu širi 40%-60% brže od alfa soja, s obzirom na očito zaobilaženje imuniteta, razradio sam scenarij sa 60% bržim širenjem. Prema njemu (pogotovo ako se u Zadarskoj županiji koja novi najveći broj slučajeva širi delta), on će uskoro postati dominantan i do sredine kolovoza potpuno zavladati:
---
---
Pretpostavio sam i tjedni uvoz u početku oko 5%, a kasnije 15% novih slučajeva - Hrvatska ima jedan od najvećih omjera ljetnih turista i stanovnika.
S obzirom na ostale postavke modela dobijamo sljedeći razvoj (u raznim vremenskim perspektivama):
Podsjetimo, piše Slobodna Dalmacija, o 4. valu nam je već govorio i infektolog Ivo Ivić:
- Nažalost, putanja ide prema gore. Ako se ovako nastavi, cijela će Hrvatska biti u crvenome! Mi već lagano počinjemo osjećati pritisak na hitnom prijemu. Prije smo imali između 20 i 30 oboljelih, a sada nam ih dnevno dolazi oko 50. Dok su to mladi ljudi, dobro je, ali dolazi nam i sve više starijih.
Nije dobro, strah me što će se dogoditi sljedećih tjedana, već se pripremamo za sve scenarije. Čeka nas teška jesen i zima i nećemo se tako lako riješiti COVID-a. I sad, da smo svi cijepljeni, broj zaraženih ne bi ni bio važan jer bismo imali malen dio u hospitalizacijama, ali ovako, budući da nam je loša procijepljenost, možemo samo opet očekivati popunjenje bolničke krevete.
---
---
A kako je delta soj puno zarazniji od originalne wuhanske inačice, možda ovaj val bude i najgori od svih, trebamo se pripremiti na sve. No, još nije kasno, ljudi se imaju priliku cijepiti.
Stoga još jednom apeliram na sve starije od 40 da se odmah cijepe. Apeliram i na mlađe jer i dio mladih može razviti teške komplikacije. Imali smo slučajeva ljudi u tridesetima koji nisu imali prethodne bolesti, a završili su s teškim komplikacijama ili na respiratoru. Svaki dan idem na posao i razmišljam o tome kako je država omogućila svima besplatno cjepivo, a onda se neki stariji od 50 ne žele cijepiti - rekao je Ivić.
Cijeli intervju pročitajte ovdje: https://slobodnadalmacija.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/raste-broj-oboljelih-sef-splitske-infektologije-nikad-ozbiljniji-poceo-je-4-val-zabranimo-sve-masovke-zbog-delta-soja-virusa-ovaj-val-mozda-bude-i-najgori-pripremamo-se-na-sve-1113569
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(
[id] => 93
[name] => Layout with three photos
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 31
[alias] => layout_with_three_photos
)
[29] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 94
[name] => Gallery in the article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 32
[alias] => gallery_in_the_article
)
[30] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 95
[name] => Required views
[value] => 0
[type] => textfield
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 33
[alias] => required_views
)
[31] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 96
[name] => FullHD image
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 34
[alias] => fullhd_image
)
[32] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 98
[name] => Paid Article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 36
[alias] => paid_article
)
)
20. svibanj 2024 12:43
