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[title] => Objavljeno važno upozorenje za hrvatske građane: ako imate gotovinski ili kredit za stan i auto, ovo morate pročitati!
[alias] => objavljeno-vazno-upozorenje-za-hrvatske-gradane-ako-imate-gotovinski-ili-kredit-za-stan-i-auto-ovo-morate-procitati
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Jurica Brkljača je jedan od naših najpoznatijih ekonomskih makroanalitičara. Napisao je svojevrsno upozorenje koje je naslovio - "refinacirajte kredite", donosi Slobodna Dalmacija.
Pa kaže:
- Ako je netko "prespavao" prošlu godinu, mali podsjetnik: razdoblje globalno niskih kamatnih stopa je iza nas. U 2022. su skoro sve veće centralne banke svijeta započele novi ciklus rasta kamatnih stopa (u cilju suzbijanja inflacije), a to se s manjom ili većom odgodom prelijeva na uvjete zaduživanja država, kompanija i stanovništva.
Kamatne stope po kojima se države zadužuju prve osjete tu promjenu monetarne politike. Primjerice, Njemačka još do prije samo 10 mjeseci izdavala desetogodišnju obveznicu uz negativnu kamatnu stopu, da bi danas to isto radila uz kta od 2,3%. Prinosi pak na američke desetogodišnje obveznice skočili su s 1,6% početkom godine na trenutnih 3,6% (prije dva mjeseca bili su čak 4,2%) itd.
Kada tako rastu troškovi zaduživanja tim nominalno najsigurnijim državama, onda znate da rastu i svima drugima. Tako su prinosi na hrvatsku desetogodišnju obveznicu u godinu dana porasli s oko 1 na trenutnih 4%.
Taj se trend nužno mora osjetiti i na troškove zaduživanja kompanija i samog stanovništva. I to već vidimo, kao što je prikazano na priloženoj slici. U eurozoni je spomenuti trend puno vidljiviji: zaokret plavih linija je puno oštriji prema gore. U Hrvatskoj je trend malo manje izražen baš zato što smo se približavali ulasku u eurozonu; imali smo "lufta" koji je poslužio kao amortizer nagloj promjeni koji je zabilježen u drugim europskim zemljama.
Uglavnom, kompanije u Hrvatskoj sada se zadužuju po stopama koje vladaju u eurozoni (govorimo o prosjeku), baš kao što su se i kamatne stope na stambene kredite stanovništvu izjednačile s onima u zemljama eurozone (kod nestambenih kredita još ima malo lufta, ali brzo se smanjuje).
Da skratim, kamatne stope su u uzlaznom trendu, sva je sila prilika da će tako duže vrijeme ostati, stoga razmislite da što prije, ako već niste, refinancirate kredite, pogotovo dugoročne. Fiksirajte kamatnu stopu na barem narednih nekoliko godina jer bi onima s promjenjivom kamatnom stopom anuiteti mogli značajno porasti u narednom razdoblju - napisao je Brkljača na svom Facebook profilu.
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Jurica Brkljača je jedan od naših najpoznatijih ekonomskih makroanalitičara. Napisao je svojevrsno upozorenje koje je naslovio - "refinacirajte kredite", donosi Slobodna Dalmacija.
Pa kaže:
- Ako je netko "prespavao" prošlu godinu, mali podsjetnik: razdoblje globalno niskih kamatnih stopa je iza nas. U 2022. su skoro sve veće centralne banke svijeta započele novi ciklus rasta kamatnih stopa (u cilju suzbijanja inflacije), a to se s manjom ili većom odgodom prelijeva na uvjete zaduživanja država, kompanija i stanovništva.
Kamatne stope po kojima se države zadužuju prve osjete tu promjenu monetarne politike. Primjerice, Njemačka još do prije samo 10 mjeseci izdavala desetogodišnju obveznicu uz negativnu kamatnu stopu, da bi danas to isto radila uz kta od 2,3%. Prinosi pak na američke desetogodišnje obveznice skočili su s 1,6% početkom godine na trenutnih 3,6% (prije dva mjeseca bili su čak 4,2%) itd.
Kada tako rastu troškovi zaduživanja tim nominalno najsigurnijim državama, onda znate da rastu i svima drugima. Tako su prinosi na hrvatsku desetogodišnju obveznicu u godinu dana porasli s oko 1 na trenutnih 4%.
Taj se trend nužno mora osjetiti i na troškove zaduživanja kompanija i samog stanovništva. I to već vidimo, kao što je prikazano na priloženoj slici. U eurozoni je spomenuti trend puno vidljiviji: zaokret plavih linija je puno oštriji prema gore. U Hrvatskoj je trend malo manje izražen baš zato što smo se približavali ulasku u eurozonu; imali smo "lufta" koji je poslužio kao amortizer nagloj promjeni koji je zabilježen u drugim europskim zemljama.
Uglavnom, kompanije u Hrvatskoj sada se zadužuju po stopama koje vladaju u eurozoni (govorimo o prosjeku), baš kao što su se i kamatne stope na stambene kredite stanovništvu izjednačile s onima u zemljama eurozone (kod nestambenih kredita još ima malo lufta, ali brzo se smanjuje).
Da skratim, kamatne stope su u uzlaznom trendu, sva je sila prilika da će tako duže vrijeme ostati, stoga razmislite da što prije, ako već niste, refinancirate kredite, pogotovo dugoročne. Fiksirajte kamatnu stopu na barem narednih nekoliko godina jer bi onima s promjenjivom kamatnom stopom anuiteti mogli značajno porasti u narednom razdoblju - napisao je Brkljača na svom Facebook profilu.
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16. svibanj 2024 21:41
